The ebb and flow of consumer confidence is something economists track religiously. For years it’s been sinking to new depths, but the sudden change of weather, allowing Britain to enjoy the best summer in years, has seen a striking turnaround. Or so it appears.Once the mercury starts rising then consumer confidence comes out of hibernation.
The lesson for retailers is that weather matters.
But if we’re all agreed there’s a growing sense of optimism the jury is still out on whether we’re witnessing a real recovery. The BRC Director General argues that, “we are seeing a tentative recovery take hold”. But I’m more inclined to agree with others, like the Asda chief executive, who is more cautious. ”Let’s face it,” says Andy Clarke, “we are bumping around the bottom”.
One famous retailer once declared that, “weather is for wimps”. But I bet the DIY boys are breathing a sigh of relief that the sun’s stayed out. It certainly shifts plenty of BBQs and garden furniture.
But as the warm weather gradually becomes more autumnal it’s important to note that this newfound consumer confidence, caused by an unusually good summer, is probably based on rising consumer debt. Economist Ann Pettifor recently noted as much, observing that we’re simply creating asset bubbles.
“We haven’t restructured the banks; we haven’t rebalanced the economy, we haven’t boosted investment: what on earth do we think we’re growing this recovery on?” she asked. “There’s nothing seriously underpinning this recovery, and that’s why it’s Alice in Wongaland, the confidence fairy is out there”.
Shortly I will publish my ‘alternative’ review of the High Street. The message I’ll be looking to get across is that serious action is required to kick start our economy through revitalised town centres and high streets based on an evidence-based plan, not meaningless posturing. For high streets – and shops – to have a future then we need to build community hubs around them that embrace housing, education, health, leisure, modern technology, entertainment and the arts.
As a critical part of our economy let’s not forget that the high street is an industry that comprises some 95,000 companies, employing £326bn of gross assets, borrowing £65bn and with a total net worth of £135bn.
This compares with the entire UK education budget of £53bn, the defence budget of £24bn, the Business, Innovation and Skills budget of a mere £13bn – and it’s way more than the health budget of £110bn.
In the last two years we have witnessed eight major retail chains go into administration. This has generated mountains of media column inches highlighting the impact on creditors and job losses. However, we rarely see the same interest in the plight of small retailers. Our review will demonstrate that there are over 20,000 small businesses out there at risk today and more and more of them will fail. There are already around 40,000 empty shops in the UK and the question that needs to be answered is what are we going to with these shops and those that are about to fail?
This is the nettle that we have to grasp if we’re going to move away from a wholly inadequate policy trail littered with too many embarrassing Peppa Pig and Chas’n’Dave moments. “The time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining,” an American president once famously said. The same applies to getting our high streets ready for the challenge of the 21st century century. We need to get on with this urgently while the sun’s still out.
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